In the case of hybrid ARMs, both the purchase and rate and term refinance (no cash out) risk multipliers are greater than 1.0. At first blush, this seems counterintuitive, especially in the case of the purchase loan, which is generally perceived to be stronger. However, we believe the findings are due to the following:
Purchase borrowers may be first-time borrowers or “stretching” to purchase their home. In addition, they may employ a second lien loan to finance their down payment. In either case, they may be overleveraged.
In addition, purchase borrowers have, by definition, no time in property, and this may influence the propensity to default.
Rate and term borrowers are not extracting equity but rather seeking to lower monthly payments. The reluctance to extract equity or the absence of equity available for extraction may signal a weaker borrower relative to a cash-out refinance.
Fixed rate and term refinance default risk is less than refinance cash out or purchase. This borrower is most likely reducing rate and/or extending term. This, in turn, lowers the borrowers and reduces the probability of default.